地震与地热的关联性：从预测减灾到取能减灾

工作：一是在地球系统动力学和热流体撞击地震成因模式指导下，科学预测地震及其关联灾害；二是在地球内部系统动力学和动态热源思想指导下，梯级综合开发地热能，特别是干热岩地热能低成本大规模持续发电，既能解决能源问题，又能从根本上解决灾害问题和环境问题。简要论述了地震与地热的关联机理，认为地球上没有板块，只有洋陆和盆山，它们由地壳和地幔固态流变物质层流而成，物质非均匀流动产生地震，断层是地震的结果。在热动力驱动地球物质非均匀层流的思想指导下，进一步阐明了地震预测和地热开发的思路和方法，明确指出沿着隐伏的活动韧性剪切带通过超长超导重力热管、U形钻井和U形挖掘进行高效采热，不仅能够解决供暖和电力问题，而且具有减灾减排作用。

关键词：地震；地热；关联机理；预测；超长热管；挖掘及管道连通式地热发电；减灾减排

中图分类号：P314.2；P315 文献标志码：A

Abstract： Geothermal energy determines the earths stratified rheology characteristics， the relevance between ocean-continent and basin-mountain， the mineralization， and the natural disaster chain， which will inevitably lead to revolutions in geoscience， energy， and disaster reduction fields. To achieve this ambitious goal， two important tasks should be carried out. One is scientific prediction of earthquakes and related disasters under the guidance of earth system dynamics and thermal fluid impact seismogenic model. Another one is cascade comprehensive exploitation of geothermal energy under the system kinetics and dynamic heat source inside the earth system instruction. It is remarkable that the hot dry rock geothermal energy is low cost and sustainable in large-scale power generation， which can solve the energy problem and the disaster and environmental problems fundamentally. The relevance mechanism between seismicity and geothermics was discussed. It is considered that there are no plates on earth but the ocean-land and basin-mountain as basic units formed by laminar flow of crust and mantle solid rheological materials. Besides， inhomogeneous laminar flow might generate earthquakes and also develop faults. Under the guidance of the idea that thermal dynamic power drives non-uniform laminar flow of earth material， the ideas and methods of earthquake prediction and geothermal development were clarified. It is clearly pointed out that using ultra-long superconducting gravity heat pipe， U shaped drilling and U shaped excavation along the underlying active ductile shear zone to efficiently collect heat， not only can solve the heating and power problems， but also help alleviating disasters and reducing the emission.

Key words： seismicity； geothermics； relvance mechanism； prediction； ultra-long heating pipe； excavation and pipeline connected geothermal power generation； disaster and emission reduction

0 引 言

中國大陆地壳活动性强，地震数量多，范围广，频率高，震源浅，损失大。20世纪以来，全球7级以上地震次数中国约占35%。全球4次8.5级及以上的陆内巨震有3次发生在中国大陆，分别是1668年山东郯城8.5级地震、1920年宁夏海原8.5级地震和1950年西藏察隅8.5级地震。中国历史上有记载的8级及以上地震还包括1411年西藏当雄南8级地震、1556年陕西华县8级地震、1679年河北三河平谷8级地震、1833年云南嵩明8级地震、1927年甘肃古浪8级地震、1951年西藏当雄北8级地震、2001年青海昆仑山口西8.1级地震、2008年四川汶川8级地震等。同时，中国也是地震灾害最严重的国家，地震造成的死亡人数约占全世界地震死亡人数的1/3。大陆动力学和地球系统动力学是认识地震成因的基础[1-13]，地震是地壳和地幔热能四维非均匀聚散作用的结果，特定时空域差热力驱动深层物质异常运动导致浅层差应力产生断层活动，形成地震。地震常以热灾害链的一个环节出现，构成系统性、连锁性灾害[7-8，14-20]。

推荐访问： 减灾 地热 关联性 地震 预测

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